The war in Iran shoots the inflation to 3,3%, the elder heaves in a month from the invasion of Ukraine The IPC scale a
The IPC scale a point in hardly a month and returns to own figures of the war of Ukraine
In the almost thirty days that have spent since the EE.UU and Israel attacked Iran and pushed to this country to close the narrow of Ormuz, the prices in Spain have escalado a point, a rhythm of advance that is suitable of a crisis of prices or spiral inflacionaria, and test of this is that from the war of Ukraine did not observe a similar advance.
Like this it releases of the last data of IPC published by the National Institute of Statistics (IPC),that for the month of March launch an inflation of 3,3% in terms interanuales (compared with the same month of the anterior year). The data has a lot of readings. Of him it can say that supposes a climbing that breaks in a sudden way with four months of descents, that move with a lot of what the Central Bank European (ECB) considers a positive value (2%) or that give the statistics to June of 2024, when, with the effects of the crisis inflacionaria post-pandemia still coleando, the prices in Spain advanced 3,4% interanual.
However, the more revelador is the data intermensual. As already it has advanced , to observe an advance of a point in the IPC in hardly a month it is necessary to retreat until the spring of 2022, when the inflation escaló 1,9% among May and June. Then, the cause was in the fault of supplies of gas and oil by the war in Ukraine; today, the cause is in the fault of supply of gas and oil by the war in Iran.
Of the scarce data of support that offers the advance published by the INE, that besides is slope of confirmation, perhaps the only notable is that the electricity noted «a descent» -reads in the press release- that it was minor that the one of the past year, but sufficient as to relieve a result that it is necessary to suppose that it had been worse. Precisely, the Ministry of Economy has taken advantage of this last to go back to claim the energies 'green', remembering that at present the renewable fix the price of the light in 84% of the hours, in front of 25% of 2019.
«The bet of Spain by the renewable is acting like shield in front of the energetic shock by the war in Iran», affirms the Executive, thing that is some although also it is it that from the blackout of the past 28 April the system has seen obliged to increase the contribution of the gas to guarantee the security of the supply in front of the fault of nuclear, with a perverse effect in terms of prices and dependency of the gas.
It was as it went, what remains clear is that given the tardanza of the Government in applying the package of fiscal discounts, his charitable effects as soon as they have noted in March, as the discount of the VAT of the fuels and other bonuses for the energy only have applied in the straight final of the month. Like this the things, the real data of the IPC does not move too much of the forecasts, that ranged among 3% and 4% depending of the stage.
From here, the calculations follow. In a context of a war 'short', does some days Funcas, the 'think tank' of the boxes of saving, estimated an inflation of 4% until June, date in which it will start a desescalada that will leave the final data of year in 3,4%. It treats of a less optimistic estimate that the one of the ECB, that after the last meeting of his Council of Government avizoró an IPC of 2,6% in 2026.
10% annual, the worst stage
Obviously, everything will depend what last the closing of the narrow of Ormuz imposed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, extreme that results difficult to calculate since in this moment the conflict finds enquistado in a luck of truce imposed by the USA that does not look to affect to the others two contendientes in liza. By the moment, the barrel of oil Brent -the one of reference in Europe- continue escalando, although it was among vaivenes that follow to this or that statement by the White House. Today it has escalado 1,23%, until the 103 dollars, figure that is very far of of these 74 dollars in that it found before that fateful 28 February.
If the situation aggravated until the point to maintain Brent above the 102 dollars all the year, Funcas estimates that the inflation will surpass 4,3%, a dramatic stage but that still could worsen. It does not be necessary to forget that, with the war of Ukraine, the IPC in Spain achieved an annual tax of 11%.
